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Russian invasion of Ukraine

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1. What we know so far
2. 20 October 2026: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met US special envoy Steve Witkoff in Oslo, in talks hosted by Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and Finnish President Alexander Stubb, The Kyiv Independent reported.
3. 20 October 2026: Støre said Witkoff would meet Russian officials in St. Petersburg on 21 October to discuss peace proposals.
4. 19 October 2026: Al Jazeera reported that Ukraine had launched more than 1,000 drones at Russia the previous day; Russia's Defense Ministry said it had intercepted 1,015 Ukrainian drones over 15 regions, Crimea and the Black Sea.
5. 18 October 2026: A fire broke out at the oil terminal of the Port of Saint Petersburg after Ukrainian drone strikes.
6. 16 October 2026: The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine said Russian attacks had killed 328 civilians and injured 2,105 in September 2026, an 85% rise from September 2025.
7. 16 October 2026: President Donald Trump signed an executive order waiving sanctions under the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia Act, which had set tariffs on buyers of Russian oil and on Russian goods, CBS News reported.
8. 14 October 2026: Russian strikes on energy infrastructure in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities killed at least nine people and left more than half a million Ukrainians without power, Al Jazeera reported.
9. 11 October 2026: Trump announced an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine, CBS News reported; neither side acknowledged the arrangement.
10. Key facts
11. Started: 24 February 2022
12. Killed or wounded, both sides: About 1 million Ukrainians and Russians (The Wall Street Journal, September 2024)
13. War deaths (Quincy Institute estimate): 250,000
14. Ukrainian civilian casualties verified in 2025: 2,514 killed, 12,142 injured
15. Internally displaced Ukrainians: 3.7 million
16. Ukrainian refugees: 6.9 million
17. Russia's direct war costs: Estimated at more than US$450 billion
18. Cost of rebuilding Ukraine (World Bank Group estimate): US$588 billion
19. Background
20. Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022, starting what has been described as the largest and deadliest war in Europe since World War II. Announcing what he called a "special military operation," Russian President Vladimir Putin framed the invasion as support for the Russian-backed breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. On 30 September 2022 he announced the annexation of Ukraine's Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, which the United Nations, the United States, the European Union and Ukraine denounced as illegal.
21. Putin announces the invasion ABC News, 24 February 2022: Putin's televised address announcing a "special military operation", and the map of Russian forces around Ukraine.
22. On 17 March 2023, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin, charging him with individual criminal responsibility for the abduction of children forcibly deported to Russia. In March 2024 it issued further warrants for the Russian military officials Sergey Kobylash, Viktor Sokolov, Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov. In May 2026, 36 countries formalized a special tribunal to prosecute Putin for the crime of aggression against Ukraine.
23. Timeline
24. 2022-02-24: Russia invades Ukraine; Putin announces a "special military operation."
25. 2022-09-30: Putin announces annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts; UN, US, EU and Ukraine denounce the move as illegal.
26. 2023-03-17: ICC issues arrest warrant for Putin over the abduction of children deported to Russia.
27. 2024-02-17: Russia captures Avdiivka after a prolonged battle.
28. 2024-03: ICC issues arrest warrants for Russian officials Kobylash, Sokolov, Shoigu and Gerasimov.
29. 2024-08-06: Ukraine launches its first direct offensive into Russian territory in Kursk Oblast.
30. 2024-08-15: Zelenskyy says Sudzha has been captured in Kursk.
31. 2024-09: The Wall Street Journal reports about one million Ukrainians and Russians combined have been killed or wounded.
32. 2025-02: 3.7 million Ukrainians are internally displaced and 6.9 million are refugees; the Quincy Institute estimates 250,000 war deaths.
33. 2025-06-01: Ukraine carries out "Operation Spiderweb" against several Russian air bases using smuggled drones; Ukraine says it damaged or destroyed 41 high-value aircraft, US officials say 20 planes were hit and 10 destroyed.
34. 2025-08: Ukrainian strikes had taken at least 17% of Russian refining (1.1 million barrels a day) offline, according to Reuters estimates.
35. 2026-01: UN reports 2025 was the deadliest year for Ukrainian civilians since 2022, with 2,514 deaths and 12,142 injuries verified.
36. 2026-02: Zelenskyy says approximately 55,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed.
37. 2026-05: A special tribunal to prosecute Putin for the crime of aggression is formalized by 36 countries.
38. 2026-06-02: Russia's missile and drone attacks across Ukrainian cities kill 24 people and injure 130 others.
39. 2026-06-15: Russian strikes kill nine people in Kyiv, Kharkiv and Dnipro, damaging cultural sites including the Dormition Cathedral and the Museum of Historical Treasures of Ukraine in Kyiv Pechersk Lavra.
40. 2026-07-21: Zelenskyy dismisses Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi and replaces him with Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi.
41. 2026-07-31: Zelenskyy claims about 50,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed, 400,000 wounded, many missing; Russian losses put at 1.6 million, including 700,000 deaths.
42. 2026-08-01: Ukraine's General Staff claims 42,860 Russian casualties during July 2026, the highest monthly figure of 2026.
43. 2026-08-04: Zelenskyy renews a 40-day SBU-led influence operation; UATV reports it has disabled 30% of Russia's oil-refining capacity and 80% of Wildberries logistics centers.
44. 2026-09-08: EU approves a loan for Ukraine to purchase 1,000 Patriot missiles.
45. 2026-09-09: Norwegian Prime Minister Støre says Zelenskyy's aircraft was nearly struck by a UAV while taking off from Moldova.
46. 2026-09-19: Trump administration approves a potential $2.68 billion sale of air defense equipment to Ukraine, financed through European contributions and US foreign military financing.
47. 2026-09-28: A Russian Shahed drone strikes the building housing the Presidium of Ukraine's National Academy of Sciences in Kyiv, killing two and injuring six.
48. 2026-10-01: Ukraine claims 46,320 Russian casualties in September 2026, the highest of 2026 and the third consecutive month above 40,000.
49. 2026-10-04: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visits Kyiv, promising €1 billion in military aid and €350 million for energy repairs.
50. 2026-10-07: Ukraine receives an EU loan worth €1.2 billion under the EU's Ukraine Support Loan program.
51. 2026-10-08: Russian strikes on two passenger buses in Kramatorsk kill at least 33 people.
52. 2026-10-10: A Russian strike on Zaporizhzhia kills 20 people, including three children.
53. 2026-10-14: Russian strikes hit energy infrastructure in Kyiv and other cities, killing at least nine and leaving more than half a million Ukrainians without power.
54. 2026-10-14: Phase four of Operation Vivaldi concludes with Ukraine claiming to have recaptured some 101 square kilometers and roughly 3,000 Russian losses.
55. 2026-10-16: UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission reports 328 Ukrainian civilians killed and 2,105 injured in September 2026.
56. 2026-10-16: According to CBS News, Trump signs an executive order waiving 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers and 500% tariffs on Russian goods set under the Graham Act.
57. 2026-10-17: Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin claims some 2,730 Ukrainian drones have been neutralized heading towards the Moscow region between 10 and 17 October, with 534 intercepted near Moscow itself.
58. 2026-10-18: Fire breaks out at the oil terminal of the Port of Saint Petersburg after Ukrainian drone strikes.
59. 2026-10-19: Al Jazeera reports Ukraine launched more than 1,000 drones at Russia the previous day; Russia's Defense Ministry says it intercepted 1,015 drones over 15 regions, Crimea and the Black Sea.
60. 2026-10-20: Zelenskyy meets US special envoy Steve Witkoff in Oslo; Støre says Witkoff will meet Russian officials in St. Petersburg on 21 October to discuss peace proposals.
61. Parties and their stated positions
62. Russia describes its action as a "special military operation," and Putin's 30 September 2022 announcement cited support for the Russian-backed breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk; the annexed oblasts were declared part of Russia, which the United Nations, the United States, the European Union and Ukraine have called illegal. According to The Christian Science Monitor, Russian analysts have insisted that the US-backed peace plan that envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner carried to Kyiv in early September 2026 reflected Moscow's terms and should be the basis for a settlement; Zelenskyy rejected the plan.
63. Ukraine's position, as Zelenskyy has set it out, calls for an end to Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy and for continued sanctions pressure on Moscow. In remarks cited by CBS News on 16 October 2026, he called Trump's sanctions waiver "unfortunate" and said it would only encourage further Russian attacks. Russian analysts cited by The Christian Science Monitor say Zelenskyy's own descriptions of the US-backed peace efforts fall short of Moscow's terms.
64. "We will defend ourselves" Zelenskyy's address to the people of Russia, published by the Guardian on 24 February 2022: if attacked, Ukraine will defend itself.
65. US President Donald Trump announced an "energy ceasefire" on 11 October 2026 and on 16 October signed an executive order waiving tariffs set under the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia Act; both moves drew bipartisan criticism in the US Senate and pushback from Kyiv. On 15 October, Trump told Newsmax that Ukraine's renewed strikes on Russian energy infrastructure were a "disgrace" and said "Zelensky is not a good guy for us to deal with." Three days later, CBS News reported, he wrote on Truth Social that Zelenskyy "doesn't want to end this war, and probably never did," criticizing Ukrainian strikes on Russian diesel refineries.
66. Diplomacy and negotiations
67. On 8 September 2026, the EU approved a loan for Ukraine to buy 1,000 Patriot missiles, and on 19 September the Trump administration approved a potential $2.68 billion sale of air defense equipment to Ukraine, financed through European contributions and US foreign military financing. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited Kyiv on 4 October and promised €1 billion in military aid and €350 million for energy repairs, and on 7 October Ukraine received a €1.2 billion loan under the EU's Ukraine Support Loan program.
68. On 11 October 2026, Trump announced an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine, though neither Kyiv nor Moscow acknowledged any such arrangement. On 20 October, Zelenskyy met Witkoff in Oslo, in a session hosted by Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and Finnish President Alexander Stubb with the EU and NATO also represented, The Kyiv Independent reported. Al Jazeera reported that the day would include bilateral talks between Zelenskyy and Witkoff, a trilateral meeting with Støre and Stubb, and joint talks with all three officials. Kushner, a US presidential envoy, was to join remotely because of illness, Reuters reported on 19 October. Støre said the same day that Witkoff would meet Russian officials in St. Petersburg on 21 October to discuss peace proposals.
69. The Oslo talks DW News, 21 October 2026: Zelenskyy meets Steve Witkoff in Oslo with the leaders of Norway and Finland, and says peace talks are back on track.
70. Military events
71. Russia captured Avdiivka on 17 February 2024 after a prolonged battle. On 6 August 2024, Ukraine launched its first direct offensive into Russian territory, in Kursk Oblast, and Zelenskyy said Sudzha had been captured on 15 August. Russia claimed the capture of Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad and Huliaipole across late 2025 and early 2026. On 21 July 2026, Zelenskyy dismissed Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi and replaced him with Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi. By 14 October 2026, the fourth phase of Operation Vivaldi had concluded, with Ukraine claiming to have recaptured some 101 square kilometers and inflicted roughly 3,000 Russian losses. Ukraine's HUR said its Group 10 special forces unit had killed 108 Russian soldiers and captured 29 in an operation in Sumy Oblast, The Kyiv Independent reported on 20 October 2026.
72. Ukraine has also struck deep inside Russia. In "Operation Spiderweb" on 1 June 2025, smuggled drones hit several Russian air bases; Ukraine said 41 high-value aircraft were damaged or destroyed, while US officials said 20 planes were hit and 10 destroyed. By August 2025, Ukrainian attacks had hit ten Russian oil refineries, disrupting at least 17% of Russia's refining capacity, or 1.1 million barrels a day, according to Reuters estimates.
73. In February 2026, Zelenskyy said about 55,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed; on 31 July 2026 he gave figures of about 50,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed, 400,000 wounded and a "huge" number missing, and claimed Russian losses of 1.6 million, including 700,000 deaths. Ukraine's General Staff claimed on 1 August 2026 that Russian forces had suffered 42,860 casualties in July, described as the highest monthly figure of 2026, and on 1 October Ukraine claimed 46,320 Russian casualties for September, the highest of the year and the third consecutive month above 40,000. Estonia's intelligence chief estimated Russian losses in the week ending 18 September 2026 at 11,000, an average of 1,600 personnel killed and wounded a day. Ukraine also said that 16,180 foreigners had signed contracts with the Russian army in the first nine months of 2026, and almost 46,000 since 2022, The Kyiv Independent reported on 20 October 2026.
74. On 17 October 2026, Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin claimed that some 2,730 Ukrainian drones heading for the Moscow region had been neutralized between 10 and 17 October, 534 of them near Moscow itself. On 18 October, a fire broke out at the oil terminal of the Port of Saint Petersburg after Ukrainian drone strikes. Al Jazeera reported on 19 October that Ukraine had launched more than 1,000 drones at Russia the previous day, and Russia's Defense Ministry said it had intercepted 1,015 Ukrainian drones over 15 regions, Crimea and the Black Sea.
75. Humanitarian impact
76. The UN Human Rights Office said in January 2026 that 2025 had been the deadliest year for Ukrainian civilians since 2022, with 2,514 deaths and 12,142 injuries verified, a 31% increase over 2024. The toll rose further in 2026: a UN Human Rights Office report cited on 4 October 2026 counted at least 15,280 Ukrainian civilians killed or injured in the first eight months of the year, 55% more than in the same period of 2025. The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission reported that July 2026 was the deadliest month for Ukrainian civilians since May 2022, with at least 437 killed and 2,610 injured.
77. On 2 June 2026, Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities killed 24 people and injured 130. On 15 June, Russian strikes killed nine people in Kyiv, Kharkiv and Dnipro and damaged cultural sites, including the Dormition Cathedral and the Museum of Historical Treasures of Ukraine in the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra. On 28 September, a Russian Shahed drone struck the building that houses the Presidium of Ukraine's National Academy of Sciences in Kyiv, killing two people and injuring six. On 8 October, Russian strikes on two passenger buses in Kramatorsk killed at least 33 people, and on 10 October a Russian strike on Zaporizhzhia killed 20, including three children.
78. As of February 2025, 3.7 million Ukrainians were internally displaced and 6.9 million were refugees. Estimates of the war's overall toll include The Wall Street Journal's report in September 2024 that one million Ukrainians and Russians combined had been killed or wounded, and the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft's estimate in February 2025 that the war had caused 250,000 deaths.
79. Economic effects
80. Russia's direct war costs have been estimated at more than US$450 billion, and the World Bank Group has assessed the cost of rebuilding Ukraine at US$588 billion. Energy infrastructure has been a central target on both sides: on 14 October 2026, Russian strikes on energy infrastructure in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities left at least nine people dead and more than half a million Ukrainians without power, Al Jazeera reported, and by August 2025 Ukrainian attacks had cut Russia's refinery capacity by at least 17%, or 1.1 million barrels a day, according to Reuters estimates.
81. On 16 October 2026, Trump signed an executive order waiving the 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian oil and the 500% tariffs on Russian goods that had been set under the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia Act, CBS News reported. A further executive order, dated 17 October 2026, waived sanctions under the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 to facilitate a deal for Russian diesel fuel. A bipartisan group of US senators called the diesel sanctions waivers "a betrayal of the people of Ukraine" and urged enforcement of the Graham Act, CBS News reported on 16 October 2026.
82. The diesel deal and the sanctions waiver ABC News (Australia), 20 October 2026: how Trump's diesel deal with Moscow and the sanctions waiver strained relations between Washington and Kyiv.
83. International reactions
84. The United Nations, the United States, the European Union and Ukraine denounced Putin's 30 September 2022 annexation as illegal. The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin on 17 March 2023 over the abduction of children forcibly deported to Russia, and in May 2026, 36 countries formalized a special tribunal to prosecute him for the crime of aggression against Ukraine. On 17 October 2026, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Ukrainian access to SpaceX's Starshield was not permitted at present, while Starlink was described as a commercial product.
85. Latest developments
86. On 14 October 2026, Russian strikes on energy infrastructure in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities left at least nine people dead and more than half a million Ukrainians without power, Al Jazeera reported, and Zelenskyy accused Russia of violating the "energy ceasefire" Trump had announced on 11 October. That night, according to a Ukrainian technology adviser cited by Al Jazeera, SpaceX introduced speed limits on Starlink terminals in motion, disrupting Ukrainian military drone operations. The same day, the trial of Ukrainian citizen Serhii Kuznetsov, accused of helping to blow up the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, opened in Hamburg.
87. On 15 October, Trump told Newsmax that Ukraine's renewed strikes on Russian energy infrastructure were a "disgrace" and said "Zelensky is not a good guy for us to deal with." The next day, CBS News reported, he signed an executive order waiving the 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian oil and the 500% tariffs on Russian goods set under the Graham Act; Kirill Dmitriev, described as an envoy to Putin, praised the suspension as a "truly historic moment," while Zelenskyy called the move "unfortunate." Also on 16 October, the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission reported that Russian attacks had killed 328 civilians in September 2026.
88. On 17 October, Marco Rubio said Ukrainian access to SpaceX's Starshield was not permitted at present, and Moscow Mayor Sobyanin claimed that some 2,730 Ukrainian drones heading for the Moscow region had been neutralized between 10 and 17 October. On 18 October, CBS News reported that Trump had written on Truth Social that Zelenskyy "doesn't want to end this war, and probably never did," criticizing Ukrainian strikes on Russian diesel refineries. A fire broke out at the oil terminal of the Port of Saint Petersburg after Ukrainian drone strikes, and Lithuanian authorities reported a drone explosion near Juodžionys, with debris found, after drones were seen moving from Poland toward Latvia.
89. On 19 October, Al Jazeera reported that Ukraine had launched more than 1,000 drones at Russia the previous day, and Russia's Defense Ministry said it had intercepted 1,015 Ukrainian drones over 15 regions, Crimea and the Black Sea. Reuters reported that Kushner would join the Oslo talks remotely because of illness, and CBS News reported Secretary of State Rubio as saying that any delays in US air defense shipments to Ukraine were not deliberate. On 20 October, Zelenskyy met Witkoff in Oslo in talks hosted by Støre and Stubb, with the EU and NATO also represented. Al Jazeera reported that the day would include bilateral talks between Zelenskyy and Witkoff, a trilateral meeting with Støre and Stubb, and joint talks with all three. Støre said Witkoff would meet Russian officials in St. Petersburg on 21 October to discuss peace proposals.

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